I read that medical institutions are buying new computed tomographs, which are needed to diagnose coronavirus pneumonia.
I immediately thought that it would be more logical to buy mechanical ventilation devices and oxygen concentrators. Tomographs are terribly expensive and not so necessary.
Personally, this situation reminds me of a survivor's systematic error. Have you heard about it?
During World War II, American bombers returned to base with many holes. In some places of the plane there were fewer holes, and in some more.
One mathematician was asked to calculate a way to protect bombers. The idea suggested itself that it was necessary to book those parts of the plane where there were more holes. But the mathematician suggested booking the intact seats.
He thought that only those planes in which the damage was not critical were returning to the airfield. This means that the holes did not affect the aircraft's ability to return home.
Most likely, you need to book those seats that were without holes. It was there that there should have been damage, because of which the bombers did not return. It's just that no one saw these holes. Because the planes did not return. This was called survivor bias.
And so it seems to me that our current hysteria around CT scanners is similar to the systematic error of a survivor.
Now people are crazy about these tomograms. For any sneeze, they irradiate themselves with a three-year dose of radiation. Sometimes a person is not worried about anything, but the tomogram shows something similar to viral pneumonia. He is taken to the hospital, and there he is guaranteed to become infected.
It would be more logical to first get sick with pneumonia, then confirm it with a tomogram or a conventional X-ray and only then get or not get to the hospital.
Strong people with good health will be more harmful from indiscriminate throwing in search of a tomograph and staying in lines next to really sick people. And really sick people in search of the next tomograph will scatter the virus.
And, in my opinion, all this is because strong and noisy people are more often running after the tomographs. When they get to the hospital in serious condition, they will need oxygen and maybe a ventilator. But at that moment they will not be able to scream and demand, because they are suffocating. No one outside will even know what they really need now. Reminds of survivor bias.
Have you thought about it?
