Yekaterina Bulavina, a medical expert at Unicef in Ukraine, interviewed a system analyst Yevgeniy Istrebin. He analyzes the numbers for COVID-19. What are they talking about?
What do these numbers say? Evgeniy told about this to the medical expert of Unicef in Ukraine Ekaterina Bulavinova on her YouTube channel. We bring to your attention the most interesting theses from this interview. Thanks to this information, a clear picture emerges of what is actually happening with the coronavirus in Ukraine.
About the rate of vaccination
In neighboring Poland, the average rate of vaccination is 350-400 thousand people per day (the maximum was 600,000). Our average rate did not rise above 130-140 thousand per day. According to the chief sanitary doctor of Ukraine Igor Kuzin, Ukraine can afford to have 250 thousand vaccinations a day. It is for this amount that there is enough technical capacity. Alas, people don't want to get vaccinated. And this should be done primarily by those who are at risk. These are people aged 60+. Because 80 percent of the hospitals are filled with this age category. And among her the greatest mortality.
There is a very low level of vaccination in Ukraine. For example, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, 21% of the population received vaccinations. And in the Transcarpathian region in general, 9.37%. For comparison, in neighboring Poland, 60% of the population is vaccinated.
Hospital occupancy rates
As of October 4, the rate of growth in hospital occupancy is 35 percent per week. Compared to other coronavirus waves, then the average occupancy rate was 20% per week. That is, the peculiarity of the autumn wave of COVID-19 is that now hospitals are filling up almost 2 times faster than it was in the spring.
With such a rate of occupancy of covid beds, for example, the Kherson region will reach the level of last spring tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. This is when the hospital facilities are almost completely exhausted and the ambulances simply have nowhere to take people. Zaporizhzhya region has 3 days left before the spring reaches its maximum. But, for example, in the Ternopil region - 43 days before this moment.
The worst situation is now in the Kharkiv region. Here, 25% remained to the maximum. Two days ago, there was a terrible situation in Kharkov. The 5 hospitals dedicated to admitting adult patients with COVID-19 were 90-95% full. Ambulances were taken to the suburbs: Chuguev, Bohodukhiv. To regional hospitals, which were located within a radius of 100 km from Kharkov.
Now the average rate of occupancy in hospitals per day is 900 beds. The day before yesterday was the maximum - 1300. The same maximum was in March, it was not higher. But then they introduced many areas immediately went into the red zone, introduced a lockdown. Now no one even stutters about it. But you need to understand that after the introduction of the lockdown, the incidence still grows by inertia for 7-10 days, and only then goes down. If in the near future the regions with a difficult situation are not transferred to the red zone, ambulances there simply will not go to call people, there will simply be nowhere to take patients.
Dynamics of bed filling in covid hospitals / E. Istrebin / Facebook
What is the Difference Between Spring and Autumn Wave
Now the growth is going much faster. This is facilitated by the fact that most universities are now working in a classical mode, hostels are open. Well, the people have "forgotten" a little for everything.
In addition, in January, the outbreak came from two regions: Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernivtsi. And now there are multi-point foci. These are Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, Chernivtsi, Lviv regions.
Now there is much more severe mortality. Already on October 4, there were 317 deaths. In the spring, on average, not at the peak, 250 died.
This table shows which areas may soon be in the red zone / E. Istrebin / Facebook
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