Yesterday, an article appeared on the RBC website about vaccination against covid and the fact that tens of thousands of vaccinated people will get sick in St. Petersburg by the fall. This was promised by the head physician of one of the private emergency medical services Lev Averbakh. In my opinion, this person was very much mistaken in assessing the effectiveness of vaccination.
He decided that if the effectiveness of the anti-toxic vaccine is at best 92 - 94%, then 6 - 10% of those vaccinated will not be helped by the vaccine, and they will get sick with covid.
Then Lev Averbakh began to count those vaccinated in St. Petersburg. If, he says, 550 thousand people have already been completely vaccinated, and the vaccine does not work for 8-10%, then 50 thousand people will get sick.
This doctor was wrong.
Now I will explain to you again. For details of medical statistics, you can refer to my article. about the effectiveness of covid vaccines.
So, let's say that the manufacturer promises a vaccine efficiency of 90%. Does this mean that out of 100 vaccinated people, 10 people will get covid? No, it doesn't.
This means that if you take people who get sick without the vaccine, then ten times less will get sick with the vaccine.
If you take 100 unvaccinated people, this does not mean that they will all get sick. Some of them will get sick, and some will not get sick. He might get infected, but he won't go to the hospital. The effectiveness of the vaccine is calculated from the number of cases.
Imagine that 10 out of 1000 people usually get sick. And the effectiveness of the vaccine for them is 90%. This means that if that same thousand people were vaccinated on time, then only one person would get sick. Got it?
Well, that is, Israel, in which millions of people were instantly vaccinated, almost got rid of covid. And no one says that among these millions, hundreds of thousands are bound to get sick.
In short, Lev Averbakh greatly underestimated the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Get vaccinated as soon as possible. So you will save yourself from a serious illness and stop the circulation of the virus. Otherwise, it will gradually mutate into some more dangerous strain. It's clear?
